Having played with a few Linux builds, Ubuntu is by far the most thought out and well developed in terms of the average user. It’s straightforward and utilizes the same sort of GUI “intuitiveness” as Windows or Mac. Meaning that if you understand how these systems build apps, you’ll understand how to get things done with Ubuntu. Blakenhorn is dead on with his main premise, that Ubuntu’s focus on the desktop has made it superior. Other builds have been sidelines, this is their focus.
As for winning any desktop Linux war, who’s to say. That’s the beauty of Open Source; there might very well be something waiting around the corner.