The End of the Print World as We Know It

Ah, Negroponte is at it again! Stirring up the masses with a prediction. This time, the doomed in focus is our old friend, the printed paper book. Negroponte points to the fact that ebook sales have overtaken hardcovers, and are expected to outpace paperbacks within the year. Of course, this statistic is solely for Amazon. When Barnes and Noble makes such a prediction, this might be more valid…at least from a larger, macro-social perspective. I expect there will long be a market for paper based books. I expect a good many things need to happen before e- truly replaces print as the way books are consumed.

Before print ‘dies’, first more and more materials will be printed solely electronically (I expect many top tier/NYTimes bestsellers, for instance). Also, the cost of readers will need to come DOWN. Until there are <$50 versions available, i.e.: until the e-reader has become commoditized, will this distribution method truly become mainstream. With that, I expect that the cost of e-publications will need to come down further in price before attaining true mass-market appeal.

Anyway, I see many challenges before Negroponte’s prognostication about print books being dead in 5 years (with whatever qualifiers you mix in there). Really, this is very aggressive and likely vapor. I do expect e- to replace paper, but slowly and iteratively. Printed, paper-based materials will be with us for quite some time.

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Edit: I felt the need to adjust this sentence: “Anyway, I see many challenges before Negroponte’s prognostication about print books being dead in 5 years (with whatever qualifiers you mix in there) is very aggressive and likely vapor.” Mid-sentence as I type, yet my mind is well on to the next topic. When I lose focus, sentences merge.

Web 2.0 or Me vs. We

One of my chums posted a very thoughtful piece about the Web 2.0 and how it is resulting in more ego-centrism (give the Angry African a read here). Thoughtful thoughts should beget thoughtful thoughts, don’t you think? Well, here are mine (for what they’re worth…money back if not delighted).

One great danger of Web 2.0 comes from our ever demanding ego. The temptation is great to simply feed it by tracking our followers on Twitter, reviewing our blog stats, ever checking our Technorati ratings, ad nauseum. Also, the temptation to simply post things to generate more readers is challenging. I see this thinking related to the adolescent mind. The form of thinking that only sees the group in terms of me. Group acceptance is paramount, even though it stems from a desire (or so claimed, at least) for independence.

Perhaps the issue, really, stems from the fact that the web, like all societal institutions, is accessible to people regardless of the state of maturity. Thus, we’re stuck with people focusing more on the numbers of interactions than on the quality. The members of our society are evolving at different rates, starting at different times. Web 2.0 loves them all.

The Angry African also brings up poverty, and the resulting lack of access. My sincerest hope is that Moore’s law combining with the economies of scale will bring these tools to more and more people globally. However, until that time, we are left with hoping their voices are heard. Most of that comes from those who “care”. Sadly, many of those are drowning in paternalism. Finding ways to ensure the voices of the impoverished and exploited are heard in a genuine way is deeply challenging.

For me, the medium summed up as tech, offers the world so very much. Perhaps I’m too Pollyannaish.

Photos

After I left my magnanimous former employer, I was out access to Photoshop. Now, I suppose I could manage with the Vista built-in tool, or Picasa. But I’m not one to do things the easy way. I chose to mess with Gimp, the illustrious open source image editing tool. More specifically, especially since I have a PhotoShop background, I went with Gimpshop, which gives me a Photoshop-esque experience. Better, I suppose, than downloading CS3 from bit torrent or something. Though I’m not a power user, I find the thing quite nice. Some day, I hope that I’ll be able to turn the most grotesque face into a supermodel. We all have our dreams, eh?

Tests


I spent a good chunk of my day, yesterday, on a skills inventory for a temp firm. Now, some would hate this. I, however, actually enjoy this. These give me some great insights into the job market’s software needs and expectations. Also, as someone who tries hard to be cutting, if not bleeding edge, I always tend to be well ahead of the curve. There were only a few areas I didn’t know strongly, particularly with the Office suite. Of course, I hold myself to a high standard here. Not knowing how to code a macro in Word 2007 bugs me. I know how to get to that screen, but it’s different enough from 2003 (where I haven’t coded a macro in years) that I was puzzled how to actually code the thing.

Windows and other fun

As much as I love the Mac OS, and Macs in general, I’m finding myself using Vista much more. Simply, it works better with everything that I need to do right now. Several employment applications are IE only. There have been several skills tests that have only worked on Windows as well. Though it makes me a little sad, at least I’m not one of the Windows bashers who has
to eat his words. *Ahem*

iPhone & Blackberry Thoughts

I’ve been wondering these past few days whether the iPhone’s huge array of applications will be THE driving force for it. Or, on the other side, whether the seeming dearth of them for the Blackberry might keep folks away. Will the average user be satisfied with a few key apps, or will they be swayed by the masses available for the iPhone? I’m not sure, myself. The main things keeping me away from the iPhone are the lack of a keyboard (I’m just not convinced that the touchscreen is that grand – know too many people who hate it) and not being able to swap out the battery.

For those put off by the price, here’s an option for you: the Peek. A pretty basic device, but should really help move people into the mobile email space. If they allow apps to be developed it would be a solid game changer. We’ll see.

Flock

Ok, folks, here’s a new (to me, at least) toy for the socially networked: Flock. This is a browser built on the Gecko engine (same as the framework for Firefox). It integrates such sites as Facebook, Blogger, Flickr, and the like. I’ve only had a bit of time to mess with this tonight, but it’s pretty handy so far. This post was written with a built in blog editor. If you spend much time in the social network space, and it’s hard not too any more, this looks like it’ll be a great tool.

Blogged with the Flock Browser

Vista

Ballmer: Vista a ‘work in progress’
Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer called Windows Vista “a work in progress” on Thursday, but he stopped short of committing to extend the life of its predecessor, Windows XP.

 

This might sum-up Microsoft’s problem’s here. Customers were expecting the “work in progress” to have progressed further.