Reflections on Paul Waldman’s “The death of the CIA Factbook and Trump’s war on usefulness​”

woman working in lab

As someone deeply interested in data and data systems, I’ve been thinking about how the Trump administration’s attacks on data, these collections of information that are critical to researchers and scientists. And how they’ve also been attacking science, research, and innovation.

This administration has been fighting a sweeping information war meant to distort and suppress facts, ideas, and history that doesn’t “align with the president’s agenda,”

I find this distressing and deplorable. It’s monumentally short-sighted. It’s cost is extreme. America can not maintain it’s lead in innovation and technology without this knowledge. Add this to the cuts to research funding and the US is decimating it’s future. Access to this knowledge is key to moving society forward, aka: innovating. In this case, we’re looking specifically at the CIA Factbook, an amazing tool I’ve used on many occasions as it’s extremely useful, which Mr. Waldman points out seems to be one of the criteria for deletion.

Besides the attack on data, the Administration’s efforts to cut funding to so much scientific research is additionally concerning. This is feeding a brain drain that’s further eroding our scientific and technical leadership. These will take decades to recover from. If we ever can. The global academic community seeks to leverage our short-sidedness.

There are some counterpoints that give me some hope. There are many organizations that are working to collect this knowledge for the Library of Alexandria is burned. Here are just a few (with descriptions provided by Gemini):

In addition to the efforts to retain the knowledge we’ve already collected, I’m also heartened by the rest of the world seeking to recruit our leading researchers, ensuring that their critical work continues.

An aside: I wonder if, at the macro level, this will benefit humanity. Disbursing talent might make science more diverse and richer. I hope it also make it more resilient to the manic moodswings of social opinions. Even if it’s a net benefit to society, though, this situation will have a painful, negative impact for years to come.

So, please, take a minute to read Paul Waldman’s article “The death of the CIA Factbook and Trump’s war on usefulness”. Then take a moment and look over the list above, and give what you can to help capture this knowledge.

Oh, Spreadsheets!

statistics survey sheet

It pains me to see someone fill in data in a spreadsheet, then use a calculator to compute everything. It adds discomfort when the math errors are what first catch your eye. I hope I didn’t upset the originator by adding my =sum functions.

Anyway, I hope your Friday is fantastic and your weekend is wonderful.

Don’t Mess With My Gear!

One thing a lot of folks know: I also run and manage sound systems. I started doing this in high school and have been doing sound tech work ever since. Currently, I am the main focus for sound at the event center I work for.

Yesterday I was called by them while at my other job because our Bluetooth transceiver wasn’t working. Long story short, they opted to not bring me in right away, but I needed to tackle this immediately when I got there (which I had planned for early afternoon).

Once I got there, it took me a couple minutes to figure out that someone had pulled the cables out. Argh! Now, in the grand scheme, minor problem. But I struggle with understanding any “why” for this besides simply being a jerk.

Frustrating for my poor morning users who, though they don’t depend on it, do like to use Bluetooth to play music. I do have regular users who do depend on that, though. Playing music from a modern phone via an aux port isn’t so easy anymore.

So, please, don’t mess with my gear! Ugh!

A Critique On AI Hype

hand of a person and a bionic hand

AI is seemingly everywhere right now, and I’ve written a bit about it before. As I’ve started diving more deeply into it, I see all the hype about how AI will be disrupting work. Well, I’ve developed a somewhat contrarian viewpoint to the prevalent viewpoint of “AI taking over everything”. Here are a few random thoughts on the whole thing right now.

A lot of what AI is replacing now, and expected to in the near future, runs on the assumption that it will remain (nearly) free. However, most of the current costs are funded by investor dollars. As MIT recently reported, 95% of AI initiatives are failing to generate value. So, the only way companies are gaining value from AI is via its low cost. And the operating costs are significant. Data centers are expensive, both to build and to operate. GPUs aren’t cheap to buy. The environmental costs are steep. And, right now, those costs are being paid from investor dollars. When those dry up (investors need to make a return on that investment at some point, and that needs to be greater than the investment as well as the current operational costs. I expect the point when investors stop feeling FOMO and start worrying about making a return will be coming soon. I expect that when the costs become the responsibility of the consumer, the price will escalate abruptly and steeply. Will a junior developer really be displaced by ChatGPT or CoPilot? Or will we suddenly find junior developers much more cost-effective?

Adding to this, I’ve seen discussion about how AI infrastructure investment is potentially masking a recession. Thus, I’m concerned that we’re missing the weakening economy, things like continued tech-sector layoffs, and are not paying attention to some big economic weaknesses. If AI investment dries up, and layoffs start compounding, the dominoes start to fall, and that brings a significant recession/depression. Which will muddle this significantly.

Anyway, I think that we are in a bubble regarding AI. Like the Dot Com bubble, I think that AI will herald significant technological changes. AI is a powerful tool, and will continue to be so. However, I am confident that the techno-dystopia predicted by AI hyper-meisters will not materialize. I’m not sure we can even conceptualize what it will look like at the end of this cycle. But I am confident that those who have mastered AI will benefit greatly from the coming revolution. There are opportunities, and now is the time to make the investment in understanding them.

Power BI

I’ve been adjusting my studies to focus on data. Right now, I’ve working on mastering Power BI, a Microsoft data analytics tool. Yesterday, as I’m finally starting to dive deep, I had a moment of sadness. I remember a role where this tool didn’t exist. I was cleaning up data from a multitude of sources, just me, Excel, and a wee bit of Visual Basic. And I had to tweak the process every month. The powerful tools in Power BI, and Power Query, would’ve been so helpful. I’m looking forward to what I can do with these modern tools.

Another Course Completed: System Administration and IT Infrstructure Services

close up photo of matrix background

I’m making my way through the Google IT Support Professional Certificate. I appreciate the refresher of many of my courses from pursuing my ATA in Web Application and Cloud Development. It may seem counterintuitive that I took two classes in CISCO Networking and one (of two) classes for the A+ certificate. But I saw value in them and did my best to fit them in.

And I’m getting to learn some new stuff, too. For instance, even though I’ve been managing Active Directory, I’ve not had the chance to dive deeply into things like Group Policies. And having an overview of data backups and disaster recovery was very insightful.

So, I have two more courses to go to finish this Certificate. I have a few different directions I can go once I finish this. The most obvious is to leverage my existing work in IT Administration and start exploring network administration. Another option, which builds more on my ATA is data systems (data analytics, database administration, that sort of thing). I do a fair amount of that right now, too. Less so in my work at the Edmonds Waterfront Center, but there’s quite a bit of alignment with what I’m doing at Trinity. I’ve been feeding a lot of ideas, my backgound, etc, into ChatGPT, and it’s recommending the data path. That seems good as I’m seeing things like “The outlook for network administrator jobs is mixed, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projecting a decline in employment by 3% from 2023 to 2033”. And then this “The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has projected substantial growth for occupations related to data analysis, with some categories seeing increases as high as 23% or more between 2023 and 2033.”

I’m trying to keep moving forward, to keep learning relevant skills. The world is changing so fast, one must work to keep up.

AI Impacts On Admin Work

woman in professional wear seated in front of monitor

I’ve heard a LOT about the expected impacts of AI on developers. When I was laid off right at the beginning of the pandemic, I opted to make a career pivot into Web Development, so I’ve paid attention to this trend closely. Add in all the lay-offs within the whole developer community, and this career, so recently highly lucrative, has become rather bleak. So much so that I’ve been looking backwards at returning to admin work (which is one of my two jobs right now). Now I see that admin work will be getting hit pretty hard by AI, too.

Earlier this week, I was on a Google Meet. With that, we used the built-in tool to create meeting notes. And, my God, it worked nicely! I was quite impressed. Now, as a long-time admin, taking and distributing meeting notes has been a significant part of my work. I’m confident that this will be done by AI going forward. And I expect that transition to be pretty quick.

Another key part of being an admin is scheduling travel. I expected AI to be able to coordinate travel pretty well. So, I did an experiment where I gave ChatGPT a very rough itinerary for a multi-stop business trip, asked it to recommend flights and hotels. It did a nice job with a few extra prompts. I had a pretty solid itinerary within 2 minutes. Impressive.

After just these two considerations, I am confident that AI will revolutionize Admin work significantly. With the job outlook for this work bleak (BLS projects a loss of 12,400 admin jobs between 2024 and 2034), and AI eroding the work, I expect it to become harder to find roles. (Yet it’s the main type of work I’m recruiters reach out to me for…go figure). It makes my decision to pivot to web development during the pandemic, and now shifting to data analysis seem that much more prudent.

Anyway, onwards!

Ah, Good Ol’ Email Scams

close up shot of fake money

This one was sent to me today. Now, back in the day I used Dashlane, but I deleted that account years ago. That was my first clue that this was a scam. Now, let’s explore this further.

This one has a few other easy ways to see that it’s a scam. The first is the email address it was sent from. Notice, the sender is NOT Dashlane.

The second comes when you hover over the action button:

Again, nothing to do with Dashlane.

There’s no way to know if the scammers “know” I had a Dashlane account due a data breach which has been dumped on the dark web, or is just a random guess. They usually send these sorts of messages out by the thousands: a purely numbers game. But it doesn’t matter. The investment from the criminal is minimal, so they only need a few clicks to make this payoff.

In the end, be careful out there.

Tech Support Flowchart

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As someone who works in IT, I find this flowchart funny. Well, I’m pretty amused by everything that xkcd posts.

Anyway, I hope you have a delightful and refreshing weekend.

Seth Godin’s “The Use (And Design) Of Tools”

As I read Seth’s post today, I started wondering how tools like AI can be impacted by, or actually impact the attitude of “Too Busy To Learn”. I think one of AI’s key potentials is to make the need to understand the tool’s operation non-essential (think coding).

Mainly, I think the future will be dominated by those who understand the tools, not by the people who can simply operate them.